Assessing the impact of one million COVID-19 deaths in America: economic and life expectancy losses.

Between February 2020 and May 2022, one million Americans have died of COVID-19. To determine the contribution of those deaths to all-cause mortality in terms of life expectancy reductions and the resulting economic welfare losses, we calculated their combined impact on national income growth and the added value of lives lost. We estimated that US life expectancy at birth dropped by 3.08 years due to the million COVID-19 deaths. Economic welfare losses estimated in terms of national income growth supplemented by the value of lives lost, was in the order of US$3.57 trillion. US$2.20 trillion of these losses were in in the non-Hispanic White population (56.50%), US$698.24 billion (19.54%) in the Hispanic population, and US$579.93 billion (16.23%) in the non-Hispanic Black population. The scale of life expectancy and welfare losses underscores the pressing need to invest in health in the US to prevent further economic shocks from future pandemic threats.

Safety and immunogenicity of a variant-adapted SARS-CoV-2 recombinant protein vaccine with AS03 adjuvant as a booster in adults primed with authorized vaccines (preprint)

Background Booster vaccines providing protection against emergent SARS-CoV-2 variants are needed. In an international phase 3 study, we evaluated booster vaccines containing prototype (D614) and/or Beta (B.1.351) variant recombinant spike proteins and AS03 adjuvant (CoV2 preS dTM-AS03). Methods Adults, primed 4-10 months earlier with mRNA (BNT162b2, mRNA-1273]), adenovirus-vectored (Ad26.CoV2.S, ChAdOx1nCoV-19) or adjuvanted protein (CoV2 preS dTM-AS03 [D614]) vaccines and stratified by age (18-55 and [≥]56 years), were boosted with monovalent (MV) D614 (5[≥]g, n=1285), MV (B.1351) (5g, n=707) or bivalent (BiV) (2.5[≥]g D614 plus 2.5[≥]g B.1.351, n=625) CoV2 preS dTM-AS03. SARS-CoV-2-naive adults (controls, n=479) received a primary series (two injections, 21 days apart) of CoV2 preS dTM-AS03 containing 10g D614. Antibodies to D614G, B.1.351 and Omicron BA.2 and BA.1 variants were evaluated using validated pseudovirus (lentivirus) neutralization (PsVN) assay. D614G or B.1.351 PsVN titers 14 days (D15) post-booster were compared with pre-booster (D1) titers in BNT162b2-primed participants (18-55 years old) and controls (D36), for each booster formulation (co-primary objectives). Safety was evaluated throughout the trial. Results of a planned interim analysis are presented. Results Among BNT162b2-primed adults (18-55 years old), PsVN titers against D614G or B.1.351 were significantly higher post-booster than anti-D614G titers post-primary vaccination in controls, for all booster formulations, with an anti-D614G GMT ratio (98.3% CI) of 2.16 (1.69; 2.75) for MV(D614), an anti-B.1.351 ratio of 1.96 (1.54; 2.50) for MV (B.1.351) and anti-D614G and anti-B.1.351 ratios of 2.34 (1.84; 2.96) and 1.39 (1.09; 1.77), respectively, for BiV. All booster formulations elicited cross-neutralizing antibodies against Omicron BA.2 across vaccine priming subgroups and against Omicron BA.1 (evaluated in BNT162b2-primed participants). Similar patterns in antibody responses were observed for participants aged [≥]56 years. No safety concerns were identified. Conclusion CoV2 preS dTM-AS03 boosters demonstrated acceptable safety and elicited robust neutralizing antibodies against multiple variants, regardless of priming vaccine. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04762680

Economic impact of tuberculosis mortality in 120 countries and the cost of not achieving the Sustainable Development Goals tuberculosis targets: a full-income analysis.

BACKGROUND: The tuberculosis targets for the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) call for a 90% reduction in tuberculosis deaths by 2030, compared with 2015, but meeting this target now seems highly improbable. To assess the economic impact of not meeting the target until 2045, we estimated full-income losses in 120 countries, including those due to excess deaths resulting from COVID-19-related disruptions to tuberculosis services, for the period 2020-50. METHODS: Annual mortality risk changes at each age in each year from 2020 to 2050 were estimated for 120 countries. This risk change was then converted to full-income risk by calculating a population-level mortality risk change and multiplying it by the value of a statistical life-year in each country and year. As a comparator, we assumed that current rates of tuberculosis continue to decline through the period of analysis. We calculated the full-income losses, and mean life expectancy losses per person, at birth and at age 35 years, under scenarios in which the SDG targets are met in 2030 and in 2045. We defined the cost of inaction as the difference in full-income losses and tuberculosis mortality between these two scenarios. FINDINGS: From 2020 to 2050, based on the current annual decrease in tuberculosis deaths of 2%, 31·8 million tuberculosis deaths (95% uncertainty interval 25·2 million-39·5 million) are estimated to occur, corresponding to an economic loss of US$17·5 trillion (14·9 trillion-20·4 trillion). If the SDG tuberculosis mortality target is met in 2030, 23·8 million tuberculosis deaths (18·9 million-29·5 million) and $13·1 trillion (11·2 trillion-15·3 trillion) in economic losses can be avoided. If the target is met in 2045, 18·1 million tuberculosis deaths (14·3 million-22·4 million) and $10·2 trillion (8·7 trillion-11·8 trillion) can be avoided. The cost of inaction of not meeting the SDG tuberculosis mortality target until 2045 (vs 2030) is, therefore, 5·7 million tuberculosis deaths (5·1 million-8·1 million) and $3·0 trillion (2·5 trillion-3·5 trillion) in economic losses. COVID-19-related disruptions add $290·3 billion (260·2 billion-570·1 billion) to this cost. INTERPRETATION: Failure to achieve the SDG tuberculosis mortality target by 2030 will lead to profound economic and health losses. The effects of delay will be greatest in sub-Saharan Africa. Affected countries, donor nations, and the private sector should redouble efforts to finance tuberculosis programmes and research because the economic dividend of such strategies is likely to be substantial. FUNDING: None.